# (Solved Homework): Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following…

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Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize ACTUAL MONTH DEMAND 59 65 67 71 5 10 75 12 81 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4-12. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Moving Average 65.667 67.667 69.333 72.667 74.667 10 76.333 78.333 12 b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4-12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t-1); 0.30 (for the period f-2), and 0.20 (for the period t-3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.) Three-Month Weighted Average 63.8 6 68.6 69.7 73.7 75.6 77.0 76 79.4 10 12

 Year Demand 3 Year Moving Average Forecast Weights for Moving Average 3 years Weighted moving average Exponential Smoothing At Tt FIT 1 59.00 0 63.000 2 65 0 62.200 62.000 1.600 63.600 3 65 0 62.760 63.000 1.420 64.420 4 67 63.000 63.80 63.208 64.820 1.540 66.360 5 71 65.667 66.00 63.966 66.396 1.551 67.947 6 70 67.667 68.60 65.373 68.068 1.587 69.655 7 77 69.333 69.70 66.298 70.241 1.763 72.004 8 77 72.667 73.70 68.439 71.956 1.749 73.704 9 77 74.667 0.1 75.60 70.151 74.713 2.051 76.764 10 75 77.000 0.3 77.00 71.521 77.222 2.188 79.410 11 83 76.333 0.6 76.00 72.217 79.366 2.175 81.541 12 81 78.333 ` 74.373 80.668 1.913 82.581

MAD for Single exponential Smoothing forecast and exponential smoothinh with trend

 Year Demand Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.20 Error Absolute Deviation 1 59 63 4 4 2 65 62.2 -2.8 2.8 3 65 62.76 -2.24 2.24 4 67 63.208 -3.792 3.792 5 71 63.9664 -7.0336 7.0336 6 70 65.37312 -4.62688 4.62688 7 77 66.298496 -10.701504 10.701504 8 77 68.4387968 -8.5612032 8.5612032 9 77 70.15103744 -6.84896256 6.84896256 10 75 71.52082995 -3.479170048 3.479170048 11 83 72.21666396 -10.78333604 10.78333604 12 81 74.37333117 -6.626668831 6.626668831 Sum 71.493 MAD 5.958 Year Demand Exponential Smoothing with trend Error Absolute Deviation 1 59 63.600 4.600 4.600 2 65 64.420 -0.580 0.580 3 65 66.360 1.360 1.360 4 67 67.947 0.947 0.947 5 71 69.655 -1.345 1.345 6 70 72.004 2.004 2.004 7 77 73.704 -3.296 3.296 8 77 76.764 -0.236 0.236 9 77 79.410 2.410 2.410 10 75 81.541 6.541 6.541 11 83 82.581 -0.419 0.419 12 81 85.100 4.100 4.100 Sum 27.838 MAD 2.320

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