(Solved Homework): The table below shows the results of two methods (Forecast 1 and Forecast 2) of forecasting for frozen…

The table below shows the results of two methods (Forecast 1 and Forecast 2) of forecasting for frozen prepared dinners, as well as the demand for the eight periods.

		PREDICTED DEMAND
Period	Demand	F1	F2
1	68	62	64
2	75	65	68
3	70	74	70
4	74	71	69
5	69	72	75
6	72	70	78
7	80	73	75
8	78	73	84

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a.	Compare the accuracy of Forecast 1 and Forecast 2 by calculating the Mean Absolute Deviation for each one. Which is more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)


MAD F1
MAD F2

(Click to select)F1F2None appears to be more accurate.

b.	Compare the accuracy of Forecast 1 and Forecast 2 by calculating the Mean Squared Error for each one. Which is more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)


MSE A
MSE B

(Click to select)F1F2None appears to be more accurate.

c.	Managers can use either of these error methods to compare forecasts. In what situation would someone use MAD? MSE? (Hint: MSE goes with control charts; MAD goes with tracking signals).

Either one might already be in use, familiar to users, and have past values for comparison. If (Click to select)control chartstracking signals are used, MSE would be natural; if (Click to select)tracking signalscontrol charts are used, MAD would be more natural.

d.	Compare the accuracy of Forecast 1 and Forecast 2 by calculating the Mean Absolute Percent Error for each one. Which is more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations to 2 decimal places and and final answers to 2 decimal places.)


MAPE F1
MAPE F2

(Click to select)F1F2None appears to be more accurate.

Expert Answer

Answer

a). MAD F1 = 5

MAD F2 = 4.875 Here MAD F1 > MAD F2, so here Forecast 2 is more accurate

b) MSE A = 31

MSE B = 27.875 Here MSE F1 > MSE F2. So here also Forecast 2 is more accurate

d) MAPE F1 = 6.77 %

MAPE F2 = 6.62 %, As the percentage error of Forecast 2 is less which shows Forecast 2 is more accurate.

c) As Tracking signal of both the forecasts is going in a single direction so we will better compare MSE of forecast 1 and Forecast 2

And Here as MSE Forecast 1 > MSE Forecast 2 so Forecast 2 is more accurate

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