(Solved Homework): The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict…

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

 

Period   Demand Predicted
1 138 112
2 194 200
3 155 150
4 91 100
5 92 80
6 132 144
7 126 128
8 134 124
9 95 99
10 149 150
11 99 94
12 85 84
13 134 140
14 134 128

 

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a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .1. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)

 

t
Period		 A
Demand		     MADt
1 138
2 194
3 155
4 91
5 92
6 132
7 126
8 134
9 95
10 149
11 99
12 85
13 134
14 134

 

b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)

 

t
Period		 A
Demand		 Tracking
Signal
1 138
2 194
3 155
4 91
5 92
6 132
7 126
8 134
9 95
10 149
11 99
12 85
13 134
14 134

Expert Answer

Answer

a)

b)

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