After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units. |
Period | Actual | Period | Actual |
1 | 201 | 6 | 261 |
2 | 223 | 7 | 273 |
3 | 223 | 8 | 275 |
4 | 231 | 9 | 281 |
5 | 254 | 10 | |
Use α=.5 and β=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) |
t Period | TAFt |
6 | |
7 | |
8 | |
9 | |
10 | |